CycleView — Free Bitcoin Cycle Chart

CycleView is a free, simple Bitcoin chart focused on the 4-year halving cycle. No signup, no ads, no tracking beyond hit counts. It is an educational resource for anyone trying to understand Bitcoin's price history and how each cycle compares to the previous ones.

Understand the Bitcoin halving cycle

Bitcoin's price follows a remarkably consistent 4-year cycle tied to its halving events, when the block reward is cut in half. Since 2012, every cycle has followed the same pattern: the peak typically arrives in September–December of the second year after a halving, and the low typically arrives in January of the fourth year. CycleView marks each of the four halving cycles on the timeline so you can see the pattern visually.

Compare Bitcoin cycles side-by-side

Click any cycle button (Genesis, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024) to highlight that period. The side panel shows the start price, end price, cycle high, cycle low, and percentage change for that cycle. This makes it easy to compare cycle-over-cycle returns and see how Bitcoin's percentage gains have diminished from one cycle to the next.

200-week moving average (200W MA)

Toggle the 200W MA overlay to see Bitcoin's long-term trend line. The 200-week moving average smooths out short-term volatility by averaging roughly four years of weekly closing prices. Historically, whenever Bitcoin's price has dropped below this line it has marked some of the best long-term buying opportunities — the 200WMA has acted as a reliable floor during bear markets. Long-term holders who bought below the 200W MA have never been at a loss if they held for at least one full halving cycle.

Bitcoin Power Law (Santostasi 2018)

Toggle the Power Law overlay to see Bitcoin's long-term growth as a mathematical curve. The Power Law model was formalized by Giovanni Santostasi in 2018, building on Trolololo's 2014 logarithmic regression. It maps Bitcoin's price as a function of time since genesis, drawing three lines: support (historical price floor), fair value (model estimate), and resistance (historical price ceiling). The regression parameters used here are from Bitbo's published power-law calculator.

Cowen Quantile Bands (Q-Bands, 2026)

Toggle the Q-Bands overlay to see Benjamin Cowen's seven-band asymmetric quantile model, published May 29, 2026 in his working paper Asymmetric Tail Curvature in Bitcoin Price Quantiles. The model fits 5,788 daily observations from July 2010 through May 2026 and estimates separate curvature parameters for the upper and lower tails of Bitcoin's conditional price distribution.

The seven bands shown are: Q1%, Q10%, Q25%, Q50% (median), Q75%, Q95%, and Q99%. The lower tail (Q1–Q25) traces structural support and stays roughly linear in log-log space. The upper tail (Q75–Q99) traces speculative peaks and compresses cycle-over-cycle — the statistical signature of diminishing returns. Cowen's paper documents that the standard OLS power law has overpredicted prices by +32% geometric mean since 2018, the stock-to-flow model by +295%, and S2FX by +1,699%. The Q-Bands model is designed to correct for that bias.

Important caveats: the model is descriptive of 2010–2026, not a price forecast. Q1% is not a guaranteed floor — closing price has fallen below it by up to −12% (September 2010) and intraday wicks have reached −34.6% (August 2010). The full source PDF is linked from the side panel.

Why use CycleView?

CycleView is a simple, straightforward, non-complex Bitcoin chart for people who want to understand Bitcoin cycles without being overwhelmed by indicators. It is free, runs entirely in your browser, requires no account, and has no advertising. It is built for traders, long-term holders, students, and anyone curious about the empirical regularities in Bitcoin's price history.

Embed CycleView on your site

You can embed any of the charts on your own website, blog, or substack with a simple iframe snippet. The chart is free to use, no attribution required (though appreciated). Example: <iframe src="https://cycleview.art/embed.html?overlay=qbands" width="100%" height="500" frameborder="0"></iframe>. Supported URL parameters: overlay=qbands, overlay=powerlaw, overlay=200wma, or comma-separated combinations. Use scale=log (default) or scale=linear.

Sources

• Cowen, B. (2026). Asymmetric Tail Curvature in Bitcoin Price Quantiles. Working paper. PDF.
• Santostasi, G. (2018). Bitcoin Power Law Theory. Practitioner research.
• Trolololo (2014). Logarithmic regression of Bitcoin price. BitcoinTalk forum.
• Daily price data: public CoinGecko / Bitbo aggregated CSV.